The next charts shows the risk-neutral implied probabilities according to intrade for the next presidential election in Mexico. The RHS axis, labeled as price, could be thought as the probability of the candidate to be elected according to market expectations (i.e. $1 = 10%). Due to the low liquidity of the market, this data should be read carefuly.
Rules of the contracts:
-This market will settle at $10.00 if the named individual is elected President of Mexico in the 2012 general election.
-This market will settle at $0.00 if the named individual is not elected President of Mexico in the 2012 general election.
-Settlement will be based on the outcome of the election, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.
EPN
AMLO
JVM
Source: Intrade
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